Off Grid Insights "From Curtailment to Convexity: Discussing BESS" Ajeje

Research evidence excerpt

Off Grid Insights "From Curtailment to Convexity: Discussing BESS" Ajeje

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

Off Grid Insights Equities

Latin AmericaFrom Curtailment to Convexity: Discussing

BESS Utilities

Giuliano Ajeje

Analyst

giuliano.ajeje@ubs.com

Reliability is the new constraint and storage is the system response +55-11-2767 6371

Brazil is entering a regime where the binding constraint is no longer energy Henrique Simoes

availability but system reliability, as rising structural curtailment and growing Associate Analyst

renewable penetration expose a gap between installed capacity and actual henrique.simoes@ubs.com

deliverability, creating asymmetric risk for unhedged generation assets and +55-11-2767 6308

increasing the value of flexibility. In this context, we held a discussion with a sector Julia Ongarato

expert to assess the role of BESS in Brazil, covering market structure, economics, Associate Analyst

regulation, curtailment dynamics, and the upcoming capacity auction. According to julia.ongarato@ubs.com

the expert, that utility-scale storage remains constrained by the lack of clear +55-11-2767 6694

revenue frameworks while behind-the-meter use cases are already economically

viable in specific segments and curtailment is becoming a structural rather than

cyclical issue, turning BESS into a hedge for realized generation rather than a pure

arbitrage play. The BESS auction is ultimately pointing to a system that will evolve

toward integrated models combining generation, storage, and commercialization,

where flexibility and price stabilization become the core sources of value.

Waiting on the auction

The system is already operationally ready to integrate storage, and the constraint is

not technical execution, but political timing. This distinction matters. When