Global Sustainability "Brazil Biofuels Expert Meeting - Semil" Carvalho

Research evidence excerpt

Global Sustainability "Brazil Biofuels Expert Meeting - Semil" Carvalho

Dudchak

compared to a gas market of ~15mn m³/day, suggesting significant headroom for Analyst

alisa.dudchak@ubs.comsubstitution. However, the market is still in its early stages. Installed capacity is

+44-20-7567 0844

expected to increase from ~700k m³/day to >1mn m³/day by 2028, supported by

new projects, although current output (~200k m³/day) highlights that utilization Kathryn Graves, PhD

remains constrained by pricing and commercialization. Associate Analyst

kathryn.graves@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4871

Pricing and commercialization – the key bottlenecks to scale

Thiago Batista, CFAWhile biomethane is technically scalable and demand exists (~15mn m³/day gas

Analyst

market), the speaker noted that adoption remains constrained by its premium over

thiago.batista@ubs.com

natural gas, limiting output to ~200k m³/day despite higher installed capacity. Key +55-11-3513 6518

bottlenecks include limited offtake, underdeveloped commercialization, and

Leonardo Olmos, CFAcapital competition in the sugar-energy sector, although regulatory progress

(licensing, market liberalization, and network access) has improved execution

leonardo.olmos@ubs.com

visibility. The development of certificates of origin was highlighted as a key step to +55-11-9658 7533

separate the green attribute from the physical molecule, potentially expanding

demand and supporting scale.

ESG

Where adoption starts: sector readiness and demand drivers Environmental

The speaker identified industry and transport as the primary end-markets for Socialbiomethane, given their high emissions intensity and existing gas or diesel GovernanceM

consumption. Transport, in particular, offers flexibility through increasing