IREN (AO) | Hold | 2026 guidance has good visibility

Research evidence excerpt

IREN (AO) | Hold | 2026 guidance has good visibility

the concessions in

networks and waste, with safe leverage (max. 3.5x NFP/EBITDA exchange for higher investments) to renew its hydroelectric

over the plan). concessions (c. 300MW, or almost half of the total capacity),

Catalysts which is included in the business plan.

The new business plan is more realistic on growth targets. Lower value extraction from EGEA. M&A risk/opportunity mainly

Increased visibility in the capital allocation and hurdle rates, to in waste, renewables, and energy supply.

increase ROIC > WACC. Authorisation process risk or delay in the realisation of current

Sector consolidation and the extraction of synergies. projects. Higher taxes on utilities.

Key data charts

Price performance Sales split by region Sales split by division

SWOT analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

Vertically integrated model (electricity generation and supply). Smaller size and lower liquidity than blue-chip utilities.

Business diversification is higher and more well-balanced than peers. Governance is weaker more complex than at peers.

IREN is the top player in north-western Italy, a very wealthy area. Operating margin squeeze in energy supply due to energy prices.

Cheap valuation and rich dividend yield. Lower ROIC than peers. Weaker management and profitability in waste.

Opportunities Threats

New CEO set to focus on ROIC more than capex growth per se. Execution risk or delay in the realisation of current projects.

Higher value creation from industrial synergies with EGEA. Political risk: higher taxes or a new power price cap in generation.

Organic growth in regulated networks. DH to become RAB-based. Potential overhang if municipalities decide to decrease their stakes.