Novo Nordisk (In depth 1K) | Hold | A positive Q1, Wegovy pill better recognised

Research evidence excerpt

Novo Nordisk (In depth 1K) | Hold | A positive Q1, Wegovy pill better recognised

gement event, Novo said it believes Ozempic US volumes are Net financial debt (m) 125,117 129,864 112,056

actually only declining by single digits, which is notably less negative than the - FCF (m) 46,367 65,353 80,476

11% decline that Symphony Health prescription data showed for Q1. US net EPS adj. and ful. dil. 20.98 21.81 25.24

pricing was also no worse than feared. Consensus EPS 21.15 20.90 23.07

Net dividend 13.10 11.10 12.80

▪Novo’s confident tone on its levels of supply for the Wegovy pill was a real FY to 31/12 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E positive, in our view, supported by management’s confirmation of plans to

P/E adj and ful. dil. 13.5 13.0 11.3

launch the pill in some (unnamed) countries outside the US in late 2026. EV/EBITDA 10.5 9.7 8.3

▪On the downside, Q1 sales of Novo’s insulins and the diabetes tablet Rybelsus EV/EBIT 11.9 11.2 9.6

were both way below our and consensus forecasts. The misses seem to be mostly FCF yield 3.7% 5.3% 6.6%

Dividend yield 4.6% 3.9% 4.5%

on an underlying basis and ongoing: our previous flattish forecasts look too ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 1.0 0.9 0.7

optimistic and we now model notable declines for both franchises. Gearing 52.0% 48.8% 35.9%

Forecast changes: GLP-1 injections up, legacy franchises down ROIC 29.9% 28.1% 29.5%

▪We hence now model only a c. 20% Ozempic US sales decline this year, down from EV/IC 4.2 3.8 3.5

30% previously. We also raise our ex-US forecasts for the Wegovy pill from minimal

levels previously, as Novo confirmed its plans to launch in some other countries.

▪The cuts to our insulins and Rybelsus forecasts, despite being generally viewed as

less “core franchises”, offset most of our increases to our GLP-1 forecasts.

David Evans