Emaar Properties PJSC (1K) | Buy | Resilient development, geopolitical overhang

Research evidence excerpt

Emaar Properties PJSC (1K) | Buy | Resilient development, geopolitical overhang

isation provide spending, delaying the recovery in hospitality and malls and

the core resilience, supporting dividends and selective weighing on sentiment towards Dubai real estate.

reinvestment through the 2026 shock. n Execution and regulatory risks remain material given the scale

Catalysts of Emaar Properties’ development pipeline.

n Faster monetisation of Dubai communities and select n A sustained de-rating of GCC real estate equities resulting in

international projects higher than assumed risk premia could compress valuation

n Quicker than expected tourism rebound lifting malls and multiples and lower our SOTP derived TP.

hospitality

n Stronger cash generation enabling higher dividends

Key data charts

FCF Sales split by region Sales split by division

40,000.0 40.0%

35,000.0 35.0% 6.3% 5%

30,000.0 30.0% UAE Development 15%

25,000.0 25.0%

20,000.0 20.0%

15,000.0 15.0% Malls & Others

10,000.0 10.0%

International

5,000.0 5.0% 93.7% 80%

0.0 0.0%

20 21 22 23 24 25 26E 27E Hospitality

Att. FCF (m) (LHS) Att. FCF Yield

SWOT analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

n Large, contracted revenue backlog with multi year visibility. n High concentration in Dubai and to the wider GCC macro cycle.

n Prime UAE land bank in flagship master communities. n Meaningful exposure to cyclical hospitality earnings.

n Structurally net cash balance sheet with rising liquidity. n Rising oversupply risk in certain Dubai residential sub markets.

n High margin malls portfolio anchored by Dubai Mall. n Dependence on pre sales/advances to fund development.

Opportunities Threats

n Monetisation of record backlog and deep landbank into 2028-29. n Escalation or prolongation of regional conflict beyond 2026.