Saipem (AO) | Buy | Getting close to some critical deadlines

Research evidence excerpt

Saipem (AO) | Buy | Getting close to some critical deadlines

Saipem Buy | Target Price: EUR5.00

Company description Management

Saipem is a global leader in engineering services for the design, construction and Alessandro Puliti, CEO

operation of complex infrastructures and plants in the energy sector, both Paolo Calcagnini, CFO

offshore and onshore. The group is exposed to both historical Oil & Gas activities Silvia Merlo, Chairman

and new businesses such as carbon capture, and is present worldwide. Key shareholders

Free float 54.00%

ENI 21.10%

CDP Equity 12.80%

Investment case Valuation methodology

Saipem reported sound earnings over the past quarters, being We use an SOP-based valuation with E&C offshore valued at 5x

at least in line with expectations. The dynamic is clearly positive EV/EBITDA 26-27E and E&C onshore at 5x EV/EBIT 2026-27E.

on EBITDA and cash, and visibility remains strong (>EUR30bn Offshore drilling is valued at 7x EV/EBITDA 2026-27ZE. We adjust

backlog). SPM remains cautious on the 2026 guidance and will the value for net debt and other items (provisions).

likely upgrade it during 2026. We also use a FCF yield approach targeting a 8% yield.

The market environment is even more supportive today, and Risks to our rating

while the Middle East could represent a risk in the short term (if Additional issues hindering the execution of some projects

the strait is not reopened by June/July), it will likely bring (Thail Oil, Mozambique, Courseulle) could impact the group's

massive opportunities in the mid-term earnings. On the other hand, good execution could lead to the

The equity story is also largely related to the merger with reversal of some provisions upon completion.

Subsea 7 New wave of awards could lead to higher earnings in the Asset