Iran disruption tracker #55: Attack called off at request of Gulf allies? Closing in on a deal?

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #55: Attack called off at request of Gulf allies? Closing in on a deal?

Implements Energy Austerity Measures: India directed state-run banks and financial entities to reduce fuel

consumption through video conferencing, limits on overseas travel, and a phased transition toward EV fleets as

policymakers attempt to preserve FX reserves and mitigate pressure from elevated crude prices.

●Chinese Refining Runs Fall to Multi-Year Lows: Chinese refinery throughput declined 5.8% y/y in April to ~13.3

MMBbl/d, the weakest level since August 2022, as refiners reduced crude imports and utilization rates amid

soaring oil prices tied to the Iran conflict

●EU Warns of Iran War-Driven Stagflation Risk: European officials warned that sustained oil prices above $100/

bbl and prolonged Hormuz-related supply disruptions could weaken growth, raise inflation, and extend energy

market tightness into 2027.

Things to watch

●US postpones scheduled attack on Iran POTUIS states 'the US will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of

Iran tomorrow' at the request of “Emir of Qatar, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabiaand the President of the UAE.

“Serious negotiations are now taking place”. POTUS further stated that he delayed the strikes after a “very positive

development” in talks and that there was “a very good chance” they could reach a deal.

●POTUS would be happy with a deal where Iran does not get a nuclear weapon: 'we'd be happy with that'.

President Trump stated that 'I was asked by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and some others if we could put it off for

2 or 3 days, a short period of time, because they think that they are getting very close to making a deal. And if

we can do that where there’s no nuclear weapon going into the hands of Iran, I think and if they’re satisfied, we