Morning Market Tidbits: Tariff refund tap starts to flow

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Morning Market Tidbits: Tariff refund tap starts to flow

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Morning Market Tidbits

Tariff refund tap starts to flow

Key takeaways 20 May 2026

Economics• Tariff refunds are flowing out faster than expected, posing an upside risk to deficits

United States

and a potential disinflationary force.

• Today, the focus will be on the FOMC minutes, which should reiterate the Fed's recent Stephen Juneau

US Economist

hawkish tone. BofAS

+1 202 442 7429

stephen.juneau@bofa.com

US Economics

BofAS

What Matters Today: Tariff refunds have started to flow back to importers See Team Page for List of Analysts

Customs and Borders Protection (CBP) cash withdrawals ($mil, month-to-date)

16 15.08 CBP: Customs and Border Protection October 2025-April 2026 average ($2.04bn)

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May*

Source: Daily Treasury Statement US Treasury Department

Note: * May data is based on month to date through May 18

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Refunds are flowing out fast

Importers have started to receive tariff refunds. The latest data suggests refunds total

around $13bn as of May 18, after accounting for recent trends in CBP cash withdrawals.

CBP officials suggest a total of $35bn (~0.1% of GDP) in refunds have been approved of

the $165bn total. So, there is more to come, and the money is flowing faster than we

expected, which presents upside risks to the near-term deficit outlook, all else equal.

And will provide another buffer to gas prices

The refunds should act as another buffer to sticky-high gas prices. Importers that

receive refunds will likely use the money to offset rising energy and shipping costs. They

may also offer some type of consumer relief, which surveys suggest is more likely to

come in the form of slower price hikes rather than a direct benefit to consumers.