Wireline & Wireless Telecom Services: Wireless competitive activity cools

Research evidence excerpt

Wireline & Wireless Telecom Services: Wireless competitive activity cools

Accessible version

Wireline & Wireless Telecom Services

Wireless competitive activity cools

Estimate Change

Stable promotional outlook with a chance of lower CPGA 20 May 2026

Carrier promotional activity is stabilizing and could drive positive estimate revisions as Equity

fewer free handset offers lower cost per gross addition (CPGA) and reduce churn. Our United States

latest promotional activity tracker indicates stable Y/Y pricing dynamics and fewer free Telecommunications

latest generation handset offers than in 2H25. Management commentary has also been Michael J. Funk

supportive of a more rational environment with both T-Mobile and Verizon commenting Research Analyst

that free handsets for everyone don’t make economic sense. Risk remains that net add BofAS+1 646 855 5664

targets at T-Mobile and Verizon or cable companies more aggressively protecting their michael.j.funk@bofa.com

broadband bases will re-ignite the competitive fire. However, following a year of Matthew Griffiths, CFA >>

Research Analyst

elevated churn, impact of immigration reform on subscriber growth and concern that Merrill Lynch (Canada)

competitive intensity would ratchet up we believe the bottom is in for industry matthew.griffiths1@bofa.com

dynamics.

Lower CPGA improves industry economics

Assuming a decrease of $100 in CPGA we estimate ‘27E EPS and FCF sensitivity ranges

of 4.3% to 8.0% and 4.2% to 5.3% for AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon. Based on carrier

activity year to date we expect AT&T will continue pushing price increases on legacy

plans with a go to market focus on converged bundle discounts. T-Mobile has also

implemented targeted price increases while Verizon has less room to raise price as it