Bristol-Myers Squibb: Factor XI scenario planning: LIBREXIA-AF represents big swing

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Bristol-Myers Squibb: Factor XI scenario planning: LIBREXIA-AF represents big swing

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Bristol-Myers Squibb

Factor XI scenario planning: LIBREXIA-AF

represents big swing

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 67.00 USD | Price: 58.31 USD

Milvexian AF: one of BMY’s top ’26 pipeline catalysts 20 May 2026

We reiterate Buy with a $67 PO (~17% upside) as BMY approaches a high impact 4Q26 Equity

milvexian AF data. The stock trades at ~9x 2026E P/E vs. peers 12x despite, and we

believe BMY has multiple shots to deliver pipeline that can narrow the multiple gap. We Jason M. Gerberry Research Analyst

believe BMY’s trough EPS (at least $5/shr) limits downside, while success from one of BofAS

two highest impact Ph3’s (milvexian-AF or IPF) can drive meaningful multiple expansion. +1jason.gerberry@bofa.com646 743 0180

Strength of LIBREXIA-AF defines upside scenarios RichardResearchWagnerAnalyst >>

Catalyst focus is LIBREXIA-AF, the largest opportunity for BMY in terms of nominal peak MLI+44 (UK)20 7995 9925

sales spanning $5bn base case to $8-14bn bull. The AF TAM is massive; we model ~20% richard.wagneriii@bofa.com

DOAC share base, vs. Eliquis 75%, leaving upside on clinical validation. A successful FXI Chi M. Fong

Research Analyst

class could exceed $10bn peak globally; BMY shares profit with JNJ. BofAS

+1 646 855 5264

Debate: stroke vs. bleed trade-off chi.fong@bofa.com

Dina Ramadane

The key debate is whether FXI can achieve ‘neutral’ outcome on stroke prevention (we Research Analyst

define commercial bar as HR <1.1) + clinically meaningful bleed reduction vs. standard of BofAS

+1 646 556 0492

care (Eliquis). Class precedent is negative: OCEANIC-AF failed on efficacy, yet broader dina.ramadane@bofa.com

FXI data consistently show lower bleeding than Eliquis.