Pan Euro Renewables: El Niño is waking up

Research evidence excerpt

Pan Euro Renewables: El Niño is waking up

Exhibit 1: A strong or very strong El Nino has 2-in-3 chances to emerge later this year

ENSO strength probabilities by season as of May 2026

Neutral Weak El Nino Moderate Strong Very Strong

AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ DJF

Source: NOAA

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Regional implications for wind resources

United States

In the US, El Niño shifts the Pacific jet stream southward, reducing atmospheric

instability and wind speeds across the central states. This creates a pronounced wind

drought in the Midwest and Great Plains, which together account for the bulk of US

onshore wind capacity. Historical data suggest that strong El Niño events can reduce

Midwest wind generation by c.14%.

La Niña, conversely, pushes the polar jet stream northward, increasing storm activity

and wind resources across the northern and central US. For the Midwest and Great

Plains, this typically translates into stronger and more consistent wind conditions,

directly offsetting El Niño-related weakness.

Europe

During El Niño, atmospheric circulation tends to favour high-pressure blocking over

Northern Europe. This is commonly associated with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation

(NAO), weakening westerly winds across the UK and the North Sea. As a result, European

wind operators often experience prolonged wind droughts and below-average generation

during El Niño winters.

By contrast, La Niña years typically support a positive NAO pattern, strengthening the

westerly jet stream and increasing Atlantic storm activity. This usually results in

materially windier conditions across Western and Northern Europe, allowing wind

generation to rebound meaningfully following El Niño periods.

Brazil

Brazil stands out as a key beneficiary of El Niño.