Internet/e-Commerce: OTA room night share update: Airbnb leads in 1H’26, 2H has added uncertainty

Research evidence excerpt

Internet/e-Commerce: OTA room night share update: Airbnb leads in 1H’26, 2H has added uncertainty

timated AA growth of 7.4% outpacing hotel nights growth of 5.5%.

Sector and market share conclusions: ROW: Rest of World

Airbnb has improved relative trends and is expected to gain share in 1H’26. The ME ME: Middle East

conflict is having a bigger impact on Booking and Expedia nights, and Airbnb is also

benefitting by 2-3 points from initiatives like RNPL and new cancelation policies. From RNPL: Reserve now pay later

here, Booking may have most exposure to ME conflict resolution/escalation.

DAU: Daily Active UsersAirbnb – We estimate that in 2026 Airbnb’s total nights growth will be higher than

peers, with continued share gains in both AA & hotels, aided by a growing contribution DL: Downloads

from emerging geos (Asia/LatAm). Product momentum seems better than peers, but

relative valuation is elevated and we think BNKG/EXPE would get a bigger valuation

boost from ME conflict resolution, we maintain our Neutral rating.

Booking – Booking is seeing added NT pressure on nights growth from ME disruptions

but, to be fair, relative growth has slowed due to Airbnb’s product initiatives & geo

expansion. In 2Q we expect nights growth at 4%, and then nights growth to accelerate

toward sector levels in 2H. Valuation at 12x ’27 P/E is well below historical average of

19x, suggesting increasing concerns on a potential 3Q recovery. We think stock will see

multiple expansion on any ME conflict resolution and maintain our Buy rating.

Expedia – Our 1H26 estimates suggest Expedia will have limited change in hotel and AA

share, aided by US exposure vs competitors, with Expedia’s total nights estimated to be

up 5.6% in 1H’26 vs group at +6.1%. We estimate Expedia’s VRBO growth above hotel