Ageas (AO) | Hold | Bloomberg reports that Ageas could take a stake in BCP

Research evidence excerpt

Ageas (AO) | Hold | Bloomberg reports that Ageas could take a stake in BCP

Ageas Hold | Target Price: EUR63.40

Company description Management

Ranked among the top 20 insurance companies in Europe, Ageas's business Hans De Cuyper, CEO

activities focus on Europe and Asia. They are grouped around four segments: Wim Guilliams, CFO

Belgium, the UK, Continental Europe, and Asia and are served through a Christophe Vandeweghe, CRO

combination of wholly owned subsidiaries and partnerships. Key shareholders

Free float 100.00%

BNP Paribas 14.24%

Blackrock 6.93%

SFPI 5.98%

Investment case Valuation methodology

We use a conservative valuation for Asia in our SOP. Asia will We value Ageas Group based on our SOP at EUR63.4 per share.

represent c. 40-45% of the net insurance results for Ageas in We calculate a ROE based on the allocated capital per division.

2025. We use a conservative COE of 11.0-12.0%. We add the capital

We expect a meaningfull increase of the HFCF per share but not excess/deficit and expected dividends for 2025-28E. We value

before 2028. the general account separately.

We think that the acquisition of Ethias will be a catalyst for Risks to our rating

Ageas but given the likely competition to acquire Ethias we fear A widening of the sovereign bond spreads would result in

that the price tag will be on the high side which could limit the pressure on the Solvency II ratio. A 50bp widening of the

EPS accretion potential for Ageas. sovereign bond spreads has a -9pp impact on the Solvency II

Catalysts ratio.

Quarterly results. Ageas is sensitive to equity, as it has an equity portfolio. A 25%

Chinese equity and real estate markets. Interest rates in China. fall in the equity market would have a -6pp impact on the SII

Potential acquisition of Ethias. ratio.