Ubisoft (1K) | Reduce | Another difficult year ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Ubisoft (1K) | Reduce | Another difficult year ahead

#EstimatesRevision #HighConviction

Release date: 21 May 2026

Company research

Reduce Ubisoft

France | Media Beta Profile: MCap: EUR629.2m

Target Price: EUR4.00 (5.00) Change in TP: -20.0% Bloomberg: UBI FP Reuters: UBIP.PA

Current Price: EUR4.79 Change in Sales: -6.4% 25E/-5.5% 26E Free float 71.5%

Avg. daily volume (EURm) 10.6 Up/downside: -16.4% Change in Adj EBIT: -8.2% 25E/35.3% 26E

YTD abs performance -25.7%

Market data: 20 May 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -81.0% 25E/-61.1% 26E

52-week high/low (EUR) 10.39/3.79

Another difficult year ahead Price performance

Why this report?

FY2026/27 is shaping up to be another very difficult year, with management 12

guiding for declining net bookings, continued negative operating 1110

profitability and an FCF outflow of up to EUR500m, leading us to cut our 9

estimates (and likely prompting further consensus downgrades). While the 87

outlook from FY2027/28 appears materially more constructive, supported by 6

a significantly stronger content pipeline, this medium-term recovery story is 54

likely to remain overshadowed by near-term balance sheet concerns, notably 3

May 25 Nov 25 May 26

the refinancing risks over the next 18 months (the EUR470m OCEANE put

option from November 2026 and the EUR675m maturity due in November Price Stoxx Europe 600 (rebased)

2027). We reiterate our Reduce rating and cut our TP from EUR5 to EUR4.

Key findings

▪Ubisoft released FY results broadly in line with updated guidance. Key elements FY to 31/03 (EUR) 03/26E 03/27E 03/28E

include: 1) EUR-443m FCF (within the expected EUR-400/-500m range); and 2) a Sales (m) 1,395.7 1,417.2 1,559.0

non-IFRS net debt position of EUR187m (guidance: EUR150m–250m). EBITDA adj (m) 411.7 266.5 412.5