Asmodee (AO) | Buy | Surprise dividend

Research evidence excerpt

Asmodee (AO) | Buy | Surprise dividend

Best Ideas

Release date: 21 May 2026

Rasmus Engberg

Head of Swedish Equity Research

Buy +46 87 23 51 12Asmodee rengberg@keplercheuvreux.com

European SMID SelectedSweden | Travel & leisure MCap: SEK29.5bn List

Target Price: SEK149.00 Bloomberg: ASMDEE SS Reuters: ASMDEEb.ST

Current Price: SEK126.40 Free float 83%

Up/downside: 17.9% Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 37.0

YTD abs performance 19.3% Market data: 20 May 2026

52-week high/low (SEK) 133.48/95.93

Surprise dividend

Key points:

Another big beat (sales 8% ahead of cons, EBITDA 14%), once again partner games/distribution/Trading cards stronger. The beat

is c 2% of 2025/26 consensus EBITDA. No outlook as is normal, so this is a good first guess of revisions.

Huge cash flow from operations, almost 90% up year on year in Q4. Impairs some back catalogue assets, leaving net earnings

lower. Positive comments on the US, despite affordability worries: “sell-in to retailers improved throughout the quarter as

inventory levels began to normalise thanks to commercial and marketing initiatives, and sell-out was strong.”

The board proposes a 0.17 EUR (SEK 1.75) dividend, which was unexpected, given the major acquisition that closed in early April.

How this business performs is a key question since management indicated it should grow significantly compared to 2025. Conf

call at 9 CET. We expect the share to start higher today.

Deviation detail

Table 1:Deviation table (consensus from Modular Finance, see Asmodee.com for more details)

Q4-2025/26 Actual KC Cons

Net sales 407 364 12% 376 8%

Adjusted EBITDA 55 41 33% 48 14%

marg 13% 11% 13%

Adjusted EBIT 49 32 50% 40 22%

marg 12% 9% 11%

Net income -14 6 -345% 15 -190%

Asmodee games 80 87 -8% 87 -8%

Partner games 316 265 19% 278 14%

Others 11 12 -5% 11 0%