Hindalco: Novelis: Adjusted EBITDA beat; Oswego restart imminent; Bay Minette on track

Research evidence excerpt

Hindalco: Novelis: Adjusted EBITDA beat; Oswego restart imminent; Bay Minette on track

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Hindalco

Novelis: Adjusted EBITDA beat; Oswego

restart imminent; Bay Minette on track

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 1,050 INR | Price: 1,048 INR

4Q: Adjusted EBITDA beat 20 May 2026

Novelis (Hindalco’s 100%-owned subsidiary) delivered a better-than-expected 4Q, with Equity

adjusted EBITDA of US$459mn (18% above BofAe). Adjusted EBITDA/t rose 26% QoQ

to US$544/t aided by cost-efficiency gains and improved scrap conditions. Volumes Bharat Subramanian >>

Research Analyst

declined 12% YoY to 844kt. Novelis reported a net loss of US$(-84)mn (vs BofAe BofAS India

US$(-111)mn). Net debt/TTM adj. EBITDA increased to 4.1x from 3.7x in 3Q. Reiterate +91 22 6632 8677 bharat.subramanian@bofa.com

Buy, as we expect Hindalco’s improving India profitability supported by stronger

aluminium prices to remain the key medium-term driver for the stock.

Oswego restart imminent; Bay Minette on track Stock Data

Novelis has started commissioning the Oswego hot mill and expects coils “within the Price 1,048 INR

next few weeks,” ahead of the prior end‑June timeline. The estimated pre‑insurance free Price Objective 1,050 INR

cash flow impact due to the fire incidents is now ~US$1.7bn (vs US$1.3–1.6bn), driven Date Established 24-Feb-2026

by higher repair costs and incremental “cost‑to‑serve” actions (third‑party Investment Opinion B-1-7

sourcing/logistics). Even so, mitigation has slightly improved the estimated adjusted 52-Week Range 617.90 INR-1,105 INR

EBITDA impact to ~US$100–150m (shipment impact unchanged); insurance is expected Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 24,449 USD / 2,247.2

to cover ~70–75% of the cash flow/EBITDA impact, though timing remains uncertain.