Iran disruption tracker #54: 'Clock is ticking': upside scenarios back in focus!

Research evidence excerpt

Iran disruption tracker #54: 'Clock is ticking': upside scenarios back in focus!

ond UAE pipeline to Fujairah by 2027 that could double bypass

export capacity outside the Strait.

●Ceasefire still fragile after tensions raised Sunday due to a fire at UAE’s Barkaka nuclear plant from a drone

strike. While Iran has not been named as responsible, the UAE is investigating the source and reserves the ability

to respond militarily.

●Iran may have hacked systems monitoring storage levels of tanks for gas stations last week in some states.

However, no damage was apparently caused.

●Iraq is in discussions with OPEC to raise oil to 5 MMbbl/d post Middle East conflict compared to 1.4 MMbbl / d

currently. Among the companies, it is speaking with are Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton. The country also noted

that it exported 10 MMbbl in April through the Strait.

●US Energy Secretary Wright said U.S. could “easily” double LNG exports without pressuring domestic

prices and expects more Middle East pipeline development, reinforcing the focus on energy security and route

diversification. He also said the U.S. plans to replace every SPR barrel drawn during the emergency period with

1.2 barrels, aiming to leave the reserve “fuller than when we started,” though execution details remain unclear.

Things to watch

●What to watch: Potential extension of Russian oil waivers for India, additional evidence of “dark fleet” or AIS-

off tanker activity near Hormuz, and whether U.S.-China discussions translate into incremental U.S. crude export

demand or coordinated pressure on Iran.

●Monitoring the IEA's Energy crisis: policy response tracker now estimates the cumulative actions by mainly non-

OECD country actions could reduce global demand by 5.5mm bpd. Many of these actions were suggested as part