Group Thoughts

Research evidence excerpt

Group Thoughts

MayMay17, 202617, 2026

Scott’s Weekly Recap (continued)

Truckload: As always, we’re hosting trucking panels and fireside chats with TL carriers including SNDR, WERN, HTLD and

CVLG. TL spot rates are tracking up over 30% y/y and carriers on 1Q earnings calls cited high-single to low-double digit

contract pricing increases. Is pricing momentum continuing so far in 2Q, and are Dedicated rates starting to move higher too?

Meanwhile, TL utilization inflected positive y/y in 1Q for the first time in 7 quarters. Historically in prior cycles, TLs have

struggled to maintain positive utilization and pricing at the same time. If the TLs can sustain both positive pricing and

utilization this cycle, the implications for mid-cycle margins and earnings would be very positive. On the supply side, how

much capacity has already come out amidst a flurry of new regulations (non-domicile CDLs, English proficiency laws, etc.),

and how much more capacity will still come out, especially following the Montgomery ruling last week. Are asset-based

carriers poised for share gains? Could this finally be a catalyst for industry consolidation? Meanwhile, how is driver turnover

trending and what’s going on with driver pay? We’ve also seen a big increase in Class 8 truck orders to start the year. Are

carriers starting to think about fleet growth? Ryder will also be at our conference – are we seeing improvement in

commercial rental utilization, new leasing activity and used truck pricing?

Bottom line: we’re clearly at the beginning of another up-cycle for the TLs, and our C27 EPS estimates are now materially

above Consensus.

LTL: We’ll be hosting fireside chats with SAIA, XPO and TFII at our conference, while private carrier Pitt Ohio will also be

participating on a panel discussion.