Tale of the Tape: Weekly Thoughts, Equity Performance, Valuation Tables, and Chart of the Week

Research evidence excerpt

Tale of the Tape: Weekly Thoughts, Equity Performance, Valuation Tables, and Chart of the Week

MayMay17, 202617, 2026

House Views

What a brutal few weeks for the housing equities. Like last week, housing equity performance was negative the past five trading days.

The HB equities declined -8.9%, while the BP equities lost -8.6%. This compares to a +0.1% S&P gain. Clearly, a 22 bp rise in the 10-

year yield to 4.59% was a major headwind for the housing sector. The 10-year is now up 34 bps since 4/20 and the housing equities

are down -13% over that time frame. As we show in our chart of the week on page 3, the majority of our coverage is more than 30%

below its 52-week high with seven names making a new 52-week low on Friday. From the recent peak in mid-February, the housing

equities are down more than 25% and have underperformed the S&P by 34 PPTs. Entry-Level Builders underperformed this week

given the move higher in rates while Large-Caps outperformed SMID-Caps.

Aside from Existing Home Sales Monday, there were not any housing-related macro releases providing direction for the group. QXO

was the sole earnings report coming Tuesday AMC. April Existing Home Sales increased +20 bps MoM to 4.02M, which was essentially

in-line with the 4.05M Consensus forecast. EHS were flat YoY and were -1.5% below the 4.08M 2025 average. Both TOL and JHX report

Tuesday AMC with both names among our top picks in their respective sectors. For JHX specifically, we believe the company’s

unrevised 4Q guide following 3Q’s beat builds in ample conservatism while recent TREX results and commentary provide positive

readthroughs to JHX’s Decking business.

Each week, we provide a "chart of the week" often pulled from our Monthly Compendium. This week we review current prices