Jet2: Fares falling, margins stalling

Research evidence excerpt

Jet2: Fares falling, margins stalling

Exhibit 18: European airline market remains structurally undersupplied

Intra-Europe actual capacity growth vs. pre-COVID trend (seats, millions)

1,600

Actual scheduled capacity Extrapolation of pre-COVID trend

1,400

1,200

1,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Diio Mi

Note: Europe excluding Russia

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

… but Jet2 flight-only yields will remain under pressure

Jet2 is expanding capacity faster than the market, increasing the need to discount

flight-only fares to build load factors toward its 90% target. This is compounded by

Jet2’s lack of scale versus peers on key Mediterranean routes. Whereas easyJet’s larger

seat base supports fare discipline, Jet2 must rely more on pricing to stimulate demand.

These pressures are acute at Luton, where scale is limited in a carrier-dominated

market, and at Bournemouth, where it competes directly with ultra-low-cost Ryanair.

Ryanair and Wizz flag weak pricing environment in Summer 2026

This volume discounting comes despite peers expecting broadly flat fares in Summer

2026. At its FY26 results, Ryanair highlighted resilient demand, although bookings are

trending closer-in, reducing visibility. Ryanair management noted pricing had “eased

somewhat” amid macro uncertainty, with F1Q27 fares expected to be down MSD% y/y

and F2Q27 fares likely flat y/y. Wizz Air echoed a similarly weak pricing backdrop, stating

it would protect load factors through promotional fares in 1H27 amid ongoing political

and consumer uncertainty. Given Jet2 is already growing ahead of the market and

discounting to support volumes, a merely flat fare environment for peers suggests

incremental downside risk to flight-only fares.

Jet2 | 19 May 2026 11

CR