Ajinomoto (2802): CEO Meeting: ABF 30% hike unlikely; strategy intact (notes attached)

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Ajinomoto (2802): CEO Meeting: ABF 30% hike unlikely; strategy intact (notes attached)

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Ajinomoto (2802)

CEO Meeting: ABF 30% hike unlikely;

strategy intact (notes attached)

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 5,400 JPY | Price: 5,193 JPY

CEO Meeting: No surprises, including ABF price hikes 19 May 2026 Corrected

A sell-side CEO meeting was held on May 18 at 10:00. Regarding ABF price hikes, Equity

President Nakamura stated that “if costs rise sharply, we will discuss passing them on,

but considering customer relationships, a uniform 30% price increase would be difficult.”

Key ChangesThere were no major differences from the earnings briefing, but we believe the sharp

share price increase on May 11 was driven by heightened expectations for a 30% ABF (¥) Previous Current

price hike following certain media reports, and there is a possibility that these Price Obj. 5,000.00 5,400.00

expectations may ease. However, there is no change to the medium-term growth 2027E EPS 142.63 145.30

scenario for ABF. At the same meeting, management also showed a willingness to 2028E EPS 162.72 166.00

achieve its FY2030 financial targets, including ROE of 20%, ahead of schedule. 2029E EPS NA 190.21

2027E EBITDA (m) 296,500.0 296,400.0

2028E EBITDA (m) 322,300.0 321,600.0Price objective raised, but Neutral reiterated

Reflecting the CEO meeting and FY3/26 results, we revise our FY3/27 operating profit 2029E EBITDA (m) NA 350,400.0

forecast up by 1% to ¥207.2bn (up 14%). We also raise our FY3/27 forecast P/E from 2027E DPS 64.18 0

35x to 37x and increase our price objective from ¥5,000 to ¥5,400. While the roughly

¥30bn increase in costs due to Middle East conditions appears larger than expected, Manabu Sumoge >>

Research Analyst