GCC real estate & retail: Takeaways from fireside chat with Damac Properties

Research evidence excerpt

GCC real estate & retail: Takeaways from fireside chat with Damac Properties

DLD reported sales lag actual transactions by c.60 days

Management highlighted the fact that the Dubai Land Department (DLD) database has a

structural 45-75 days gap to actual market transactions due to the registration timelines

once a transaction is concluded and the first downpayment is received. As such, March

sales decline won’t be reflected until starting from late May / early June in DLD data. The

latter shows a gradual m/m increase in Damac sales in 4M26 which reflect the strong

sales momentum in Damac Islands 2 master development prior to the conflict.

Exhibit 1: Dubai off-plan transactions in value Exhibit 2: Dubai off-plan transactions in units Exhibit 3: Dubai off-plan deals – Average psf

In AED billions In thousands Price per square foot (psf)

May MTD 1,693

Apr 2,218

19.6 19.4 20.0 18.1 9.0 9.0 9.0

8.2 Mar 2,204

4.5 7.6

Feb 2,159

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jan 2,173

MTD MTD

Source: Dubai Land Department, BofA Global Research Source: Dubai Land Department, BofA Global Research Source: Dubai Land Department, BofA Global Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Buyer mix unchanged with 60-65% from non-residents

The sales volume decline was across the board rather than skewed to any one cohort

with the buyer mix remaining unchanged. 60-65% of the sales continue to be realized

with non-residents (Europeans, Indians, Americans in particular) after Damac proactively

pivoted its distribution effort towards Western Europe in the last 2-4 years.

Management indicated that Saudi and Iranians have never represented a large portion of

the sales while Pakistani buyers’ share is steady in mid-single digit.

Construction delays more likely in 2027