GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
CSN (subsidiary issuer): Cash burn overshadows EBITDA resilience
Research evidence excerpt
CSN (subsidiary issuer): Cash burn overshadows EBITDA resilience
Management outlook: better tone, but
cash proof needed
2Q/2H improvement depends on execution
Management’s forward-looking tone was constructive, especially on steel, cement and
working-capital release. In steel, management said the domestic market improved
meaningfully from March and expects better 2Q26 results, supported by anti-dumping
measures, lower imports, April/May price increases and cost initiatives. Management
also referenced a potential return to double-digit steel EBITDA margins in 2Q26.
We view this as a key upside risk, but not enough to change our cautious stance as price
increases need to stick, imports need to remain contained and cost savings need to
offset a still difficult domestic market.
Inventory monetization is also targeted
Management repeatedly emphasized inventory reduction as a key 2026 priority. It
referred to around R$12bn of inventories across raw materials, work-in-process and
finished products, and described inventory reduction as a major lever for cash
generation and deleveraging. The company said a liquidity program started in April to
monetize finished products and other materials, especially in steel.
Mining: resilient, but freight is a
headwind
Mining was operationally resilient despite heavy rainfall. CMIN reported 10.1Mt of total
production including third-party purchases, down -1.5% YoY, while own production
increased +6.7% YoY. Sales volume was 9.6Mt, broadly flat YoY, and TECAR shipped a
first-quarter record 8.7Mt, up +1.4% YoY.
Adjusted net revenue fell -7.2% YoY to R$3.1bn, which CMIN attributed exclusively to
FX, as volumes and prices were broadly stable. Unit net revenue was US$62.6/t, broadly
stable YoY and QoQ.
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