Danone: Twin growth deficits

Research evidence excerpt

Danone: Twin growth deficits

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Sell Danone 21 May 2026

Company Update

Europe

France

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 19 May 2026 (EUR) 63.50

DANO.PA BN FP PAR DANO

Price Target (EUR) 59.00

Consumer Staples

ADR ISIN 52-week range (EUR) 79.60 - 61.24

Food Manufacturing

DANOY US23636T1007

Twin growth deficits

Valuation & Risks

Tom Sykes

Weakening outlook in key markets Research Analyst

China trade data shows infant formula imports declined in April with volumes down +44-20-754-76418

15% and price/mix slowing to only low single digit. The China infant formula market

Archit Agarwal

looks like it is in more than just "normalisation". Research Associate

At the same time the company continues to lose share in the US yogurt category,

Madhu Vijay

which itself is slowing and seeing an increasing level of promotions.

Research Associate

With the outlook for these businesses slowing we are cutting our FY 26e EPS by

1.3% and FY 27e by 2.6%, we are 3.1% and 5.4% below consensus respectively. Mitch Collett

Research Analyst

+44-20-754-11307

On our revised forecasts the stock sits on 9.5x 27e EV/EBITDA, 16.0x 27e PE and on

a 4.7% FCF yield to EV. On a fwd 12m PE basis the stock is at a 5% premium to the

Key changes

sector and we expect the stock to go to a discount should growth in the key markets

TP 65.00 to 59.00 ↓ -9.2%

above slow.

DB EPS (EUR) 3.85 to 3.80 ↓ -1.3%

There is a lot to like about the management team and the long term value creation Revenue (EURm) 28,134 to ↓ -0.0%

28,132

ethos, but we see market dynamics as unfavourable.

Source: Deutsche Bank

We reduce our target price from EUR65 to EUR59 (7% downside) and remain Sell. Stock option liquidity data

Shares outstanding (m) 646

Option volume (und. shrs., 1M avg.) 113,095