Accelerating BTC/Share and Accretive Deleveraging Support PT to $400

Research evidence excerpt

Accelerating BTC/Share and Accretive Deleveraging Support PT to $400

TD Cowen Strategy

Global Research May 19, 2026

Valuation: Higher BTC $ Gain Supports $400 Price Target

We raise our price target to $400 (from $395) driven by higher FY26 BTC $ Gain estimates

following stronger-than-expected bitcoin accumulation and continued execution on accretive

financing strategies.

Framework: Valuation Driven by Treasury Operations and BTC Holdings

Our valuation framework remains unchanged and is anchored in two components:

■Treasury operations value, based on a multiple applied to forward BTC $ Gain

■Balance sheet value, reflecting projected bitcoin holdings net of liabilities

This approach captures both the company’s ability to generate incremental bitcoin per share

and the underlying value of its bitcoin position.

Maintaining 3x Multiple on BTC $ Gain

We continue to apply a 3x multiple to FY26 BTC $ Gain. In our view, this remains appropriate

given:

■demonstrated access to capital markets at scale

■consistent execution of accretive financing structures

■sustained growth in BTC per share despite dilution

Importantly, recent activity—including preferred issuance and discounted convert repurchases

—reinforces confidence in Strategy’s ability to fund continued bitcoin accumulation efficiently.

Figure 2. Bridge to $400 Price Target (in millions except per share data)

BTC $ Gain, FY26E $15,160

Earnings multiple 3x

Treasury Operations value $45,481

plus: Bitcoin value at Dec-26 132,939

Target enterprise value $178,420

less: gross debt (3,510)

less: preferred equity (15,481)

Target equity value $159,429

fully-diluted shares at Dec-26 399.212

Target equity value per fully-diluted share @ Dec-26 $ 400

Note: convertible securities in the money at our PT are deemed converted.