RISI Reporting Tighter Conditions in Cboard; June Increase Should Stick

Research evidence excerpt

RISI Reporting Tighter Conditions in Cboard; June Increase Should Stick

USA | Paper & Packaging EquityMayResearch17, 2026

RISI Reporting Tighter Conditions in Cboard;

June Increase Should Stick

Export containerboard prices rose, lining up with tightening market conditions

in the US market, with RISI's contacts expecting solid traction for the June

increase. While there is investor fatigue in the containerboard stocks, we believe

the pullback has created buying opportunities, particularly in Buy-rated SW.

Tight supply conditions & inflation support June increase. Containerboard prices were unchanged

in May following the net $50/ton increase between Feb & Apr, but RISI's tone was noticeably

different, with buyers reporting difficulty sourcing tons and mills booked to mid-June & July. Given

the current backdrop, the 6 largest producers have announced a $50-70/ton increases effective

early June. RISI noted the 10% reduction in supply "was being felt in the market today like never

before as box demand improved slightly and as some buyers wanted tons quickly". Integrated

producers are seeking tons in the open market, and a large integrated producer is already charging

a June increase of $50/ton. While some contacts thought the June increase was 'irresponsible', if

inflation remains elevated and box demand continues to gradually improve, RISI's contacts see the

full $50 increase sticking.

Box demand sees a modest sequential uptick. Contacts described the box demand uptick in Apr

improving into May. Mill backlogs were largely unchanged MoM at 4.5-5.5 weeks, and lead times

have lengthened modestly due to the tighter supply conditions. The improvement in demand came

quick, likely helped by a seasonal uplift, and there's some risk of pre-buying, but with a June increase