A stitch in time… Why more central banks are set to raise rates

Research evidence excerpt

A stitch in time… Why more central banks are set to raise rates

19 May 2026

A stitch in time… EconomicsGlobal

Why more central banks are set to raise rates

◆ Even if the Strait re-opens swiftly, the risk of supply shocks

and the impact on global inflation and growth will endure

◆ So we now forecast that more central banks will raise policy

rates, even in the event of a near-term peace deal

◆ The next in G10 set to hike in June/July are ECB, BoE, BoJ,

and some EM; even a Fed rise in 2026 can’t be ruled out

The US-Iran conflict has hit confidence globally but the impact so far on activity, partly Janet Henry

Global Chief Economist

due to industrial inventory rebuilding, has been quite modest. Some Asian economies HSBC Bank plc

have seen outright shortages, but in wealthier economies with high reserves there are janet.henry@hsbcib.com +44 20 7991 6711

few signs of supply disruptions. Inflation is more evident though: energy has caused a

Bethan Ellis

jump in producer prices globally, and CPI inflation has risen by more than 1ppt in the Global Economist

HSBC Bank plc

US/Europe in the two months since hostilities started and much more within ASEAN. bethan.ellis@hsbc.com

Our oil price forecasts are higher. Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to +44 20 7991 6714

growth have risen sharply, and financial conditions are tightening.

Which supply shocks are next?

The longer the disruption continues, the more likely there will be shortages of

commodities and related products. Supply shortfalls could result in sharply higher

prices. Vessels carrying crude oil will be the first to start flowing once the Strait re-

opens. It could be months before some of the refined products arrive at the

destinations where needed.