REGN: LAG-3 Miss A Tough Break; Surmountable, But Is It One Setback Too Many?

Research evidence excerpt

REGN: LAG-3 Miss A Tough Break; Surmountable, But Is It One Setback Too Many?

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Brian Abrahams, M.D. (Head of Global Healthcare Research)

(212) 858-7066, brian.abrahams@rbc.com

Kevin Meli, Ph.D. (Senior Associate)

(212) 548-3110, kevin.meli@rbccm.com

Nevin Varghese, Ph.D. (Analyst)

(212) 301-1609, nevin.varghese@rbccm.com

May 17, 2026

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Sector Perform

NASDAQ: REGN; USD 698.25RESEARCH LAG-3 Miss A Tough Break; Surmountable, But Is It Price Target USD 707.00 ↓ 762.00

One Setback Too Many? Scenario Analysis*

Our view: Fianlimab miss is a disappointment; we estimated ~$1.6–1.8B

WW peak prob-adjusted sales for fianlimab in 1L metastatic melanoma, DownsideScenario CurrentPrice TargetPrice ScenarioUpside

so it is meaningful - particularly given we think most had expected it to

work - though not necessarily critical in light of their continued strong dupi 500.0028% 698.25 707.001% 950.0036%

growth, Eylea HD getting back on track, energized dupi life cycle initiatives,

*Implied Total ReturnsEQUITY and the expected SNY royalty step-up. But the failure of an active drug to Key Statistics

get over the line on a key study, compounded by other recent missteps Shares O/S (MM): 107.6 Market Cap (MM): 75,111

(itepekimab failure, HD launch with less competitive label, manufacturing Dividend: 0.00 Yield: 0.0%

hiccups, etc.) could cause some skeptics to more vocally question the Avg. Daily Volume: 755,303

company's overall direction and strategy, and whether a more focused RBC Estimates

approach towards more novel concepts (vs. BCMA, Factor XI, GLP-1/PSCK9, FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

and C5 follow-ons) or a different mix of innovative/high-risk and well- Revenue 14,343.0 16,346.0 17,873.0 18,559.0