Metlen Energy & Metals PLC: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Metlen Energy & Metals PLC: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Metlen Energy & Metals PLC (MTLN.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Alumina Production (kt) 855 871 965 1,265

Aluminium Production (kt) 232 232 232 268

Aluminium EBITDA/t (US$/t) 723 1,301 1,686 2,245

Clean Spark Spread (€/MWh) 28 24 22 20

Power Production (TWh) 10.4 11.4 11.6 11.8

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Multi-faceted growth in Energy segment RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Low-cost, cash-generative Aluminium business Acceleration in global renewables build-out

Highly synergistic business model Strong demand for renewable assets and thus EBITDA

Jurisdictional de-risking better returns in asset rotation (€, mn) 1,069 1,196

1,121 Scaling up of Circular Metals and Defence

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE initiatives

Higher aluminium and alumina prices

EBIT

Higher power prices 885 1,001

(€, mn)

100% Europe ex UK RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 938

Increasing pressures putting renewable

growth/returns at risk 3.86 EPS

Higher bond yields 3.79 4.82Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate (€)

Lower power prices 4.23View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Stronger EUR

Weaker execution on growth plans 1.35

Aluminium overcapacity DPS 1.09 1.97

(€)

1.49

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 63.6% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3x

HF Sector Net Exposure 34.3%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /