UMG Spotify CMD: Landmark UMG licensing deal & an AI-derivative tier will drive subs, ARPU, UMG’s mkt share

Research evidence excerpt

UMG Spotify CMD: Landmark UMG licensing deal & an AI-derivative tier will drive subs, ARPU, UMG’s mkt share

Daniel Kerven AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-3057 22 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

daniel.kerven@jpmorgan.com

Spotify Reserved… giving artists’ biggest fans the opportunity to secure tickets:

Reserved rewards Spotify Premium Superfans by offering them a window to purchase

two tickets before they go on sale to the general public. The selection process is not

solely based on streaming volume, but it also considers how deeply a fan engages with

an artist’s catalogue and their overall interaction with the artist across Spotify. When a

user is selected, Spotify sets aside two tickets for them, giving the Superfan an exclusive

opportunity to purchase these tickets ahead of the general public. Spotify then guides the

user directly to its ticketing partner to complete the purchase. This system is possible

because Spotify has 1) verified users (not bots); 2) decades of data to accurately identify

genuine fans; and 3) the scale to make the programme meaningful for artists. With

millions of certified Superfans, Spotify can actually make sure there are more than

enough engaged fans to fill every reserved seat on any given tour. Live Nation will be

Spotify’s launch partner in a multi-year agreement. Live Nation was always going to sell

the tickets – it can now sell the tickets to the most dedicated fans of the artists …

solving the problem of bots, touts and true fans not being able to buy tickets. Spotify

Reserved will be another reason to take a premium, paid Spotify subscription. UMG

will also benefit from more wholesale subs and revenues.

Spotify music gross margin commentary … Spotify guided for its group gross margin