Concentra Holdings Inc. Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Concentra Holdings Inc. Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

21 May 2026

Concentra Holdings Inc. Overweight

CON, CON US

Model Update Price (20 May 26):$25.42

▲Price Target (Dec-26):$34.00

Prior (Dec-26):$31.00

Following 1Q earnings (see our earnings recap here), we are updating our estimates

and price target for CON. Following the 1Q beat and raise to 2026 guidance, we Managed Care and Facilities

revise our 2026 estimates to account for increased visibility into favorable “core” Benjamin Rossi AC

growth trends in WC and Onsite along with slightly softer volumes in ES, which (1-212) 622-9603

resulted in us increasing revenue to $2,335M (+7.9% y/y and vs $2,315M prior) benjamin.rossi@jpmorgan.com

and adj EBITDA to $470M (+8.8% y/y and vs $460M prior). From there, we Lisa C. Gill

increased our 2027 estimates on the higher baseline and factored stronger growth (1-212) 622-6466

lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

in Onsite, which resulted in us increasing our estimates for revenue to $2,470M

John Stansel, CFA

(+5.8% y/y and vs $2,445M prior) and adj EBITDA to $505M (+7.4% y/y and vs

(1-212) 622-0083

$495M prior). We reiterate our belief that CON represents a unique asset within HC john.stansel@jpmorgan.com

services given the company’s flexible cost structure and more minimal policy/ Cole Harris

reimbursement risk, with the company’s decision to institute share buybacks (1-212) 622-9068

implying some added confidence in business conditions and capital deployment cole.harris@jpmorgan.com

optionality going into the seasonally stronger 2Q/3Q. We also see favorable upside J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

opportunities in out-yrs as CON expands adjacent services (e.g., APC, telemed)

and Onsite offerings following last year’s POI acquisition. We maintain our