China Tanker Shipping Global China Summit Takeaways: CMES sees post-Hormuz-reopening VLCC TCE at US$130-150k/day

Research evidence excerpt

China Tanker Shipping Global China Summit Takeaways: CMES sees post-Hormuz-reopening VLCC TCE at US$130-150k/day

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

21 May 2026

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China Tanker Shipping

Global China Summit Takeaways: CMES sees post-

Hormuz-reopening VLCC TCE at US$130-150k/day

Infrastructure, Industrials &

Transport

We hosted the management of China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES) on day Beatrice Lam AC

2 of the JPM Global China Summit. While we do not cover CMES, the discussions (852) 2800-8738

provides valuable read-through for Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation (CSET; beatrice.lam@jpmorgan.com

Overweight on both H/A) given similar tanker shipping exposure and market Karen Li, CFA

positioning. The key takeaway was that management views reopening of Hormuz (852) 2800-8589

karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

as structurally bullish for the VLCC market. Management argued reopening would J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

initially trigger broad crude restocking, transport-system disruption and Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

congestion, potentially driving spot VLCC TCE temporarily toward US$300–

500k/day before normalizing lower. More importantly, management believes post-

reopening VLCC earnings could still stabilize around ~US$130–150k/day,

supported by inventory rebuilding, structurally longer tonne-mile demand and

continued inefficiencies across the global transport system. Management also