Netcare Limited Trading Statement - H1 adj HEPS 3.3-7.5% beat vs JPM implies, good margins and suggests possible upside to FY 2026 ests

Research evidence excerpt

Netcare Limited Trading Statement - H1 adj HEPS 3.3-7.5% beat vs JPM implies, good margins and suggests possible upside to FY 2026 ests

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

21 May 2026

Netcare Limited

Trading Statement - H1 adj HEPS 3.3-7.5% beat vs Overweight

JPM implies, good margins and suggests possible NTCJ.J, NTC SJ

upside to FY 2026 ests Price (20 May 26):1,604c

Price Target (Sep-27):1,880c

Our Take: Netcare released a trading statement ahead of full H1 results due on CEEMEA Chemicals and Healthcare

ACMonday (May 25th), this follows on from a 5-month trading update released March Alex Comer

24th see here). NTC has guided to 1H26 EPS of Rc 69.4-72.3 which is +3.3% to (44-20) 7134-5945

+7.5% better than JPMest of R c67.2. NTC guided to revenue up 4.6% for the first alex.r.comer@jpmorgan.com

5 months in its March 24th trading update and commented that EBITDA margins J.P. Morgan Securities plc

had increased ‘slightly’, assuming revenue for H1 is up 4.6% our model suggests

EBITDA margin would need to rise 40bp to 18.9%. H1 is historically around 44%

of annual earnings, suggesting and 2026FY Adj HEPS figure of Rc 156 to 164 vs

JPM of Rc151 and Bloomberg Con of Rc 154. NTC also reminded the market in

its trading update that 2026 PPD growth is expected to be H2-weighted, given the

87-bed Polokwane mental health facility comes on-stream in mid-March, 53 new

beds at established acute facilities, as well as capacity optimisation initiatives.

However, the consumer and the economy remain under pressure in SA. We will be

hosting NTC management for a call on Tuesday 26th May to discuss their results

and more - link to sign up here.

• Noteworthy Areas: Adj HEPS guidance is +3.3%-7.5% vs JPMe (+5.4% at

midpoint) and is +18-23% y/y likely to result in upgrades to FY cons EPS.