SGH Ltd Investor Day: Flywheel spinning, but return to 10% EBIT growth requires M&A

Research evidence excerpt

SGH Ltd Investor Day: Flywheel spinning, but return to 10% EBIT growth requires M&A

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

21 May 2026

SGH Ltd Neutral

SGH.AX, SGH AU

Investor Day: Flywheel spinning, but return to 10% EBIT Price (21 May 26):A$41.12

growth requires M&A Price Target (May-27):A$42.50

SGH targets 10% organic operational EBIT growth per annum (~50/50 core Australia

organic/post M&A improvement). This is broadly in-line with history, and the

Australia Industrials

operating model is clearly capable of extracting value from the assets it owns. But

the near-term organic levers we can identify – a continuation in Boral growth Lee Power AC

(FY27E), robust WesTrac aftermarket growth on an aging fleet, and the ramp-up (61-2) 9003-8725

lee.power@jpmorgan.com

of Crux/Energy (FY28E) – get us to MSD EBIT growth in FY27 and FY28. The

Dylan Adrian

rest requires M&A, above-normal capital to be invested into the current business, (61-2) 9003-7397

or is longer in timeframe (incl. property). While the CEO noted a geographic dylan.adrian@jpmorgan.com

broadening towards offshore M&A (in response to changing domestic policy Nick Torelli

settings), we still believe domestic expansion is the most logical and most likely (61-4) 6817-5219

option. SGH’s sensible rigour in sticking to its returns-driven process means this nick.torelli@jpmorgan.com

may take time. In the meantime, Bloomberg consensus still expects 7% EBIT J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

growth in FY27/28 (JPMe 4%). We remain Neutral-rated.

• Investor Day: 10% organic EBIT CAGR ambition, M&A framework, AI Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun)

benefits. SGH has an ambition to grow organic EBIT by 10% p.a. over a 3-5 Adj. EPS (A$)

2025A 2026E 2027E

year period, split ~50/50 organic core/post M&A improvement.