JPM E&P Valuation Analysis Analyzing E&P Valuations at Updated Strip Pricing for 2026-27 Amid Oil Price Volatility

Research evidence excerpt

JPM E&P Valuation Analysis Analyzing E&P Valuations at Updated Strip Pricing for 2026-27 Amid Oil Price Volatility

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

21 May 2026

JPM E&P Valuation Analysis

Analyzing E&P Valuations at Updated Strip Pricing for

2026-27 Amid Oil Price Volatility

JPM View: In light of the heightened volatility in commodity pricing post the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

AC1Q26 prints, we thought it would be useful to publish a set of valuation charts for Arun Jayaram

our E&P coverage at updated 2026/2027 strip pricing of $90.28/$77.29 per bbl (1-212) 622-8541

WTI & $3.73/$3.53 per MMBtu NYMEX gas (based on closing prices on 5/19/26). arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

In this note, we rank our coverage group on key valuation metrics including FCF Zach Parham AC

yield, FCF/EV yield, EV/EBITDA multiple, EV/DACF multiple, and leverage (1-212) 622-5837

metrics. One caveat to our sensitivity analysis is that we have left our published zach.parham@jpmorgan.com

capex and production estimates unchanged, though we note that changes to Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

development plans are possible in a higher price environment. (1-212) 622-3795

pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

• FCF metrics at strip pricing. The E&P sector trades at a median FCF yield Jack Jerusalmi

of 15.2%/13.7% in 2026/2027 using updated strip pricing as of 5/19/26. On (1-212) 622-6552

FCF/EV, the group trades at 12.8%/11.6% yields in 2026-27. By sub-segment, jack.jerusalmi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Oily Large Cap E&Ps are trading at a 2026 FCF yield of 16.1%, Oily SMid

E&Ps are at 17.5%, and Gassy E&Ps at 10.6%. In 2027, the Large Caps are

trading at FCF yields of 13.2%, Oily SMids at 19.2%, and Gassy E&Ps at

11.3%. We show 2026-2027 FCF/EV at the individual company level in Figure