Silicon Motion J.P. Morgan TMC Conference Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Silicon Motion J.P. Morgan TMC Conference Takeaways

gement indicated that the global PC unit shipment

decline in 2026 could be somewhat better than their previous expectation (10-15% YoY

decline)—closer to ~10% or less—as Apple’s MacBook Neo gains share and multiple PC

OEMs are launching new, lower-cost and thinner models in 2H26. These new models

typically favor lower-capacity SSDs, further reducing the impact on SIMO. SIMO’s

client SSD controller business continues to benefit from market share gains, primarily

driven by the ramp of PCIe Gen 5 (PC OEMs scale PCIe Gen 5 deployments—both 8-

channel and predominantly 4-channel controllers—in 2H26), with share rising

from ~33% in PCIe Gen 4 to 50%+ in PCIe Gen 5. We also see additional upside from

SIMO’s Ramless 4-channel PCIe Gen 5 controller, which could see broader adoption in

2H26 following recent breakthroughs with key Korean NAND players, including

Samsung. On the supply side, NAND makers are allocating less capacity to PC OEMs

amid ongoing constraints. At the same time, Samsung, Micron, and others are shifting the

majority of their NAND solution resources toward HBM (HBM4e and HBM5, with 50%

of output to be customized, as per management). This structural reallocation is

accelerating outsourcing of client SSD controller to SIMO.

• Strong eMMC/UFS share gains despite market softness; sizable eMMC upside from

IoT devices: Despite management’s expectation for a 10–15% decline in 2026

smartphone shipments (with mid- to low-end Android most impacted), SIMO expects

its eMMC/UFS business to keep growing, supported by strong module-maker demand

and rising outsourcing from NAND makers as they continue to exit the mobile controller

market. SIMO estimates that it serves ~90% of module makers supplying major