M-E conflict bites; 2H pax trend as forecast

Research evidence excerpt

M-E conflict bites; 2H pax trend as forecast

Macquarie Equity Research Auckland International Airport

April 2026 monthly traffic update

We view the April traffic update as consistent with AIA’s FY26 passenger assumptions

underpinning NPAT guidance, with load-factor strength offsetting softer headline volume

growth.

The key insight remains that capacity constraints, not demand weakness, are driving

variability in monthly prints.

• International passengers: 846k (+1% YoY), with seat capacity -1% YoY, supporting load

factors of 87% (+1.4ppt YoY)

• Domestic passengers: +1% YoY, with capacity +2% YoY and load factors at 84%

• Middle East disruption persists, with passengers -80% MoM and capacity -74% MoM on

impacted routes.

April represents a moderation from March’s stronger growth (international +8% MoM), but

remains positive on a YoY basis.

The sequential trend suggests normalisation rather than deterioration, with variability driven

largely by airline capacity decisions and exogenous disruption.

Operating trends

1. Demand remains resilient; capacity is the constraint

• International growth of +1% MoM on -1% capacity implies structurally firm demand

• Load factors have now continued to expand into April (87%), reinforcing a tight supply

environment

• This aligns with a yield-supportive environment, particularly across constrained long-haul

routes.

2. Long-haul supply remains the key swing factor

• Long-haul passengers -1% MoM vs capacity -6%, with load factors rising to 86% (+4.2ppt)

• Ongoing Middle East disruption (~-80% pax) continues to materially suppress volumes and

connectivity

• In our view, the gap between demand and available seats implies latent upside once

capacity normalises.

3. Short-haul stable but less tight