MUR: Post 1Q26 Adjustments—Exploration at the Forefront as Offshore Catalysts Build

Research evidence excerpt

MUR: Post 1Q26 Adjustments—Exploration at the Forefront as Offshore Catalysts Build

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — May 17, 2026

Exploration & Production

Murphy Oil Corporation

Post 1Q26 Adjustments—Exploration at the Forefront as Equal Weight

Offshore Catalysts Build Price Target: $42.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

MUR delivered solid operational execution in 1Q, but we expect investor focus to EPS 2026 3.52 5.85 -39.7%

increasingly shift toward offshore appraisal & exploration catalysts, w/ Vietnam & Côte EPS 2027 2.77 4.22 -34.2%

d’Ivoire outcomes shaping the next phase of resource growth & capital allocation. Rev. (MM) 2026 3.27B 3.45B -5.2%

Rev. (MM) 2027 3.22B 3.18B 1.5%

Production Trajectory & Activity Cadence. MUR reiterated its FY26 outlook, though

2Q vols are expected to moderate QoQ due primarily to completion timing in the Eagle Ticker MUR

Ford, with TILs weighted later in 2Q. Activity and spending remain concentrated in 1H, Upside/(Downside) to Target 3.3%

particularly across onshore drilling and offshore exploration/appraisal programs, which

Price (05/15/2026) $40.64

should support a more back-end weighted production profile into 2H26. We model 2Q–

4Q26 total vols of 166.2/175.5/176.2 mboe/d and capex of $381/$219/$183mm. 52 Week Range $20.31 - 43.34

Market Cap (MM) $5,868

Exploration & Appraisal Outlook. MUR continues to advance a broad offshore Enterprise Value (MM) $6,876

exploration & appraisal program across Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire & the GoA. In Vietnam, the Average Daily Value (MM) $97

HSV appraisal campaign is progressing through the final 2 wells, w/ results expected in Dividend Yield 3.4%

3Q26 and likely to refine the resource ests & development planning. In Côte d’Ivoire, the