ARX: A Strong Response from the Market; Conference Call Roundup

Research evidence excerpt

ARX: A Strong Response from the Market; Conference Call Roundup

eme, but it is low gap to broker

• We assign a 10% discount to the broker GSHD and TWFG) using 2027 EBITDA peers since ARX went public).

multiple (moderately better than multiples. • This downside scenario would entail

average since ARX went public) given • This upside scenario would entail lower-than-expected premium growth

improving results and outlook with accelerated premium growth on top of and weaker EBITDA margins.

strong EBITDA growth / margin and better-than-expected EBITDA margin • Hadron premium continues to become

focus on the Hadron piece coming expansion. a larger portion of third-party premium

down to the 35-40% mix of third-party • Assumes more high-profile insurance and growth ex Hadron deccelerates.

premium in 2026. capital providers join the platform. • Assumes less member count growth

• Hadron mix comes down below 35-40% and an elevated churn rate from either

in 2026 with third-party premium ex MGAs or risk capital providers.

Hadron accelerating.

Upcoming Catalysts Company Description

• Q2 earnings and conference call: Next earnings print should Accelerant Holdings (ARX) is a data-driven risk exchange that

provide more color on guided items and expectations for 2026 connects specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners

• New disclosed risk capital partners / members: Any new by leveraging proprietary tech to share actionable data and insights

announcements of additional partners should support value with platform participants. ARX operates in three major segments

proposition and growth moving forward. including (1) Exchange Services, (2) MGA Operations, and (3)

Accelerant Underwriting. In 2025, the exchange housed $4.2b of

written premium.

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