Gemlife Communities Group "Unearthing the upside; initiate at Buy" (Buy) Zhang

Research evidence excerpt

Gemlife Communities Group "Unearthing the upside; initiate at Buy" (Buy) Zhang

Global Research

19 May 2026ab

Initiation of Coverage

EquitiesGemlife Communities Group

Unearthing the upside; initiate at Buy Australia

Real Estate

12-month rating Buy

Founder-led business with pure-play exposure to growth industry Prior : No Rating

We initiate on GemLife with a $5.50 Price Target and Buy rating. GLF offers pure-play 12m price target A$5.50

exposure to the land lease communities (LLC) sub-sector, which caters to over-50s and Prior :

provides a lifestyle-oriented alternative to traditional retirement living offerings. This is a

Price (19 May 2026) A$4.32

burgeoning sector which benefits from the dual tailwinds of: i) demographic trends,

with the cohort of Australians aged 50-84 expected to grow at ~2x the pace of under- RIC: GLF.AX BBG: GLF AU

50s through to 2040; and ii) low penetration rates of ~2.0%, which sit well below the Trading data and key metrics

~4-6% seen in more established markets like the US. We estimate that a modest 1.0%

52-wk range A$5.35-3.99

increase in penetration rates by FY41 (see Figure 4…andamodestliftinasumedpenetrationrates(now:2.0%)wouldsignificantlyliftrequisitesuply) would require national settlement

Market cap. A$1.64b/US$1.17b

volumes to grow at a 9.1% CAGR through to FY41 from FY24 levels (~2,700 homes).

Shares o/s 380m (ORD)

We would expect GLF to be well placed to take share in this growing industry, given its

strong brand/customer perception and peer-leading profitability metrics. Free float 57%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 922

Consensus significantly underestimating dev't earnings potential from FY27+ Avg. daily value (m) A$4.4

We forecast GLF to deliver an FY26-29 new home settlement CAGR of 16%, well ahead Common s/h equity (12/26E) A$1.12b