Latin American Economic Perspectives "Colombia: The 2026 Presidential El..."

Research evidence excerpt

Latin American Economic Perspectives "Colombia: The 2026 Presidential El..."

Global Research

19 May 2026ab

Latin American Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasColombia: The 2026 Presidential Election And

Beyond Andrea Casaverde

Economist

andrea.casaverde@ubs.com

+1-203-713-2515

On Sunday, May 31 Colombians will go to polls to elect a new president for the 2026- Roque Montero

2030 term, following a multi-stage election season that started on March 8 Strategist

congressional vote. In this note, we assess key electoral dynamics and their economic roque.montero@ubs.com

implications. Sharp differences across candidates—particularly on the role of the state, +1-203-719 2112

fiscal policy, and the energy sector—point to binary economic outcomes depending on Rafael De La Fuente

the election result. Economist

rafael.delafuente@ubs.com

What to expect on Election day according to polls? +1-203-719 7127

A runoff is the most likely outcome, with ruling party Ivan Cepeda leading, and a tight

race for a runoff ticket between Paloma Valencia (institutional right-wing) and Abelardo

de la Espriella (right-wing outsider). The final runoff pairing; Cepeda's valid votes mark;

and voter turnout/mobilization are key issues to watch on Election day.

What do top-3 contender campaign platforms focus at?

Campaign platforms reflect divergent visions for Colombia’s economic model. Cepeda

proposes to extend President Petro’s agenda by expanding the state’s role in the

economy, advancing pending social reforms, and maintaining opposition to new oil

exploration. On the right, candidates broadly align around pro-growth, fiscally

disciplined, and energy-supportive policies, with differences mainly in the pace and

scope of reforms.

Is there a feasible path for fiscal consolidation?