Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot "Falling inventories build mark..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot "Falling inventories build mark..."

Global Oil Market

UBS Scenario Oil price forecast ($/bbl)

We expect Brent to remain close to $100 in the very near term as

flows via Hormuz remain very disrupted. If the conflict de- Oil price fore cast ($/ bbl)

escalates soon and flows via the Strait resume, we see Brent

falling back into the mid-$80s. We believe that the market is

likely to factor in a structurally higher risk premium though, as

tensions could linger. Our base case is for modest US shale

growth: we forecast 2026 US liquids growth of 0.4Mb/d. As

inventories will have to be rebuilt, we expect oil prices to remain

supported in 2027 as well. Looking further out, rising efficiency

and EVs' increasing impact should see demand growth slow Source: Datastream, UBS estimates.

sharply and peak oil reached by 2030, although this is likely to

be followed by a long plateau rather than a sharp drop. We

expect global spare capacity to decline as non-OPEC supply

growth slows down more rapidly than oil demand growth,

limiting the negative impact on prices.

Upside price scenarios UBS S/D balance and implied stock change (Mb/d)

In the near term, we see the main potential upside risk coming

from extended Middle East disruptions. If the conflict lasts into pli

the summer and flows via Hormuz remain severely disrupted, im

prices could move into more severe demand destruction

territory of $120+/bbl, with limited OPEC+ ability to act. While and

such a price may be short-lived, a structurally higher risk

premium could keep prices in the $80s/bbl range over time. nce

bala

S/D

UBS

ed s tock cha nge (Mb/ d)

Source: IEA (2026) Oil Market Report – May 2026, EIA, ANP, NPD, Gov.uk,

Companies, UBS estimates.

Downside price scenario Brent oil price ($/bbl)