Morning Expresso – Australasia "Tuesday 19 May 2026"

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Expresso – Australasia "Tuesday 19 May 2026"

Brambles - Repair work coming

Earnings risk mostly captured, valuation upside re-emerged: upgrade to Buy Industrial Services

The 18 May trading update was disappointing, and while we understand it may take evidence of

improvement to restore market confidence in Brambles’ growth, we believe the -20% share price

reaction is overdone and compelling valuation support has re-emerged. We expect Brambles to provide RATING: Buy

FY27 guidance at its upcoming August results, but now consider that update to be lower risk with TARGET: A$23.80

consensus FY27E sales and margins likely tempered from this trading update. Brambles is still the

market leader with underlying FMCG exposure, an advantage to serve automated supply chains, and

natural operating leverage plus further automation/digitisation benefits ahead. Based on our revised PRICE: A$17.63

forecasts, we estimate BXB is trading on 16.5x PE NTM (avg 19x over last 3yrs), reflecting a 19% MCAP: A$23.9b/US$17.1b

discount to ASX Industrials (ex Fins ex Healthcare).

Negative trading update operational in US, macro in Europe

Brambles’ trading update downgraded FY26 sales guidance from +3-5% to +2-3% (UBSe from +3.0% EPS ESTIMATES:

to +2.5%) and EBIT guidance from +8-11% to +3-5% (UBSe +8.2% to +4.2%). The EBIT downgrade 06/26E: 1.05

of 5.5%pt (using midpoints) is partly attributed to US repair capacity constraints of US$60m (~4%pt), 06/27E: 1.07

with the rest explained by softer demand and higher supply chain costs in Europe. Of the US$60m 06/28E: 1.20

repair constraints, US$40m is attributed to supply chain costs (e.g. fuel/freight from pallet relocations) RIC: BXB.AX

and US$20m from foregone volumes. Brambles suggests that repair constraints will be resolved by BBG: BXB AU