Global Sustainability "Can Europe Have a Green Transition Without China?" Kalb

Research evidence excerpt

Global Sustainability "Can Europe Have a Green Transition Without China?" Kalb

Global Research

19 May 2026ab

Global Sustainability Equities

Asia PacificCan Europe Have a Green Transition Without

China? Global Sustainability

Victoria Kalb

Analyst

vicki.kalb@ubs.com

Europe faces a renewed energy security shock... +65-6495 4584

Europe remains structurally exposed to fossil fuel imports, leaving it vulnerable to Jarvis Lam

external supply shocks (here) and price volatility. Policymakers increasingly recognise the Analyst

challenge of replacing a meaningful volume of fuel supply, for the second time since jarvis.lam@ubs.com

2022, and are telegraphing that responses must be considered from the standpoint of +852-2971 7701

energy security, rather than a standalone focus on simply replacing lost inventory. Charles Fruitiere

Several recent EU policy communications address this including AccelerateEU and EU Analyst

Industrial Accelerator Act. charles.fruitiere@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 4123

...but regulators are concerned about replacing one dependency with another Alisa Dudchak

Replacing fossil fuel supply at scale presents a practical challenge and risks creating new Analyst

dependencies, especially if Europe is not able to ramp up domestic supply chains. Thus alisa.dudchak@ubs.com

far, China has been a beneficiary of a European shift away from fossil fuel (starting from +44-20-7567 0844

2022 with REPowerEU). Europe is a key destination for China's “New Three” (EVs, solar Tim Bush

and batteries) exports that more than quadrupled in 2023 (vs. 2021) and picked up Analyst

again in 2026 (see our companion note exploring recent Chinese export data in more tim-d.bush@ubs.com

detail). However, recent EU policies incl. recommendations on restricting public +82-2-3702 8801