European Infrastructure "Higher (inflation) for longer: which companies ..."

Research evidence excerpt

European Infrastructure "Higher (inflation) for longer: which companies ..."

Global Research

19 May 2026ab

European Infrastructure Equities

Europe including UKHigher (inflation) for longer: which companies

provide the best hedge? Transportation Services

Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

Analyst

cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

Benchmarking inflation pass through and debt profiles for EU infrastructure +44-20-7568 4375

Since the start of the Iran war on the 26th February, we calculate US/EU nominal 10y Amal Patel

yields have risen 30-90bps (Fig 1) primarily driven by increasing inflation expectations vs. Analyst

real yields which have only increased marginally. In this context , we benchmark in depth amal.patel@ubs.com

EU infra names looking at the ability to pass through inflationary pressures and the +44-20-7568 3973

potential cost increases from higher interest rates. We conclude that on average,

motorways have a better inherent pass through vs. airports whilst within Airports,

Athens/ADP/Aena screen as most insulated. Considering debt, we note Ferrovial (14-

23yrs avg. maturity) and Getlink (>50% maturity post 2040) screen as having the

highest duration, whilst European airports/Vinci/Eiffage have 5-6 years (Fig 6). In a

context in which Fraport has the highest debt at ~6x leverage 2026 (UBSe), we see the

company as worst positioned. Analysing the fixed/variable split, Vinci has a higher

proportion of variable rates followed by Eiffage and other names.

In this environment of uncertainty around traffic risk for motorways, airports, and a

potential slowdown in contracting bringing headwinds to working capital, we prefer

high quality names with strong balance sheets and strong pricing power. Our top picks

amongst European infrastructure Aena, Vinci, Ferrovial and ENAV all exhibit