First Read: Heidelberg Materials "Investing in Europe Conference 2026 -..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Heidelberg Materials "Investing in Europe Conference 2026 -..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 54.2%

Forecast dividend yield 2.4%

Forecast stock return 56.5%

Market return assumption 7.7%

Forecast excess return 48.8%

Company Description

Heidelberg Materials is one of the largest global producers of cement, aggregates and ready-

mix concrete. The group operates across the world. In 2024, it derived 31% of its EBITDA in

North America, 42% in Europe, 14% in Asia-Pacific (including its 55% stake in Indocement),

and 13% in Africa and the Middle East. The group has expanded materially over the last

decade or so, with the acquisitions of Hanson in 2007 and Italcementi in 2016.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Building material companies are by their nature exposed to national building cycles which are

influenced, in our view, by the level of interest rates, the rate of growth of GDP, employment

growth, population growth and the general condition of buildings (public and private).

Companies' sales are also sensitive to selling prices, which can vary as capacity and demand

levels fluctuate. Costs can by impacted by fuel costs, labour costs and other raw material costs

as well as carbon prices. International companies in our coverage list are sensitive to exchange

rates, although this is generally only through translation. The companies also face political

risk, and can be affected by weather. The group also has asbestos related claims made against

it in the US (provisions could be inadequate if claims rise) and has an insurance policy to cover

certain environmental liabilities (provisions could prove inadequate if claims rise). The group

has several outstanding anti-trust investigations ongoing. Heidelberg Materials has