Intuit Inc "Framing the Evolving AI Risk to TurboTax" (Neutral) McGinnis

Research evidence excerpt

Intuit Inc "Framing the Evolving AI Risk to TurboTax" (Neutral) McGinnis

From To % ch Cons.

filings, while more complex ones remain less exposed to disruption. AI search Q1 3.34 3.34 0 3.34

platforms like ChatGPT, Claude and Perplexity may pressure TT’s Assisted “do-it- Q2 4.14 4.14 0 4.15

with-me” offering, as some increasingly may turn to AI for tax questions rather Q3E 12.47 12.47 -0 12.57

than an expert. That said, near-term threat from these tools remains somewhat Q4E 3.37 3.37 0 3.20

limited since they cannot yet e-file, and unbundling prep from filing is challenging 07/26E 23.22 23.29 0 23.20

given TT’s pricing is tied to return complexity. Our own testing of a simple W-2 use 07/27E 25.72 25.71 -0 26.58

case also uncovered accuracy limitations across general-purpose AI tools (TT offers 07/28E 28.10 28.10 -0 30.37

a 100% accuracy guarantee and will cover IRS penalties in event of errors), often

Taylor McGinnis

requiring user intervention to get to the right answer. Though, AI-native solutions Analyst

like Prime Meridian were more precise, demonstrating that purpose-built, lower- taylor.mcginnis@ubs.com

cost alternatives can be introduced and rival TT over time. At the same time, low- +1-212-713 1332

cost competitors aren’t new and TT has remained relatively resilient despite their

Daniela Campo, CFA

presence, which former employees attribute to its brand trust, credibility, and Analyst

reliability—key factors given the sensitive and high-stakes nature of tax filing. daniela.campo@ubs.com

Additional strengths noted include its user experience, expert network, and +1-212-713-3781

marketing scale, but these advantages may narrow over time.

Madeline Tribendis

Gradual Pressure To Pricing & Product Mix: Former employees indicated that Associate Analyst