Olympus Corporation "Revising forecasts: Strength in N. America & Asia"

Research evidence excerpt

Olympus Corporation "Revising forecasts: Strength in N. America & Asia"

Due

From To % ch Cons.

to growth for high-margin products, we expect the GIS division’s OP margin to rise to 03/27E 75.8 89.0 17 87.7

23.2% (+3.6pt yoy; previous estimate: 20.9%). We expect FY3/27 OP to rise ¥40bn yoy. 03/28E 90.5 106.3 18 106.7

We think around ¥20bn in negative factors stemming from halted shipments, import 03/29E 102.1 119.0 17 114.2

warnings, and tariffs are likely to be offset by several profit-growth factors, including

reduced FDA-related costs (¥8bn), reduced structural reform costs (¥22bn), structural Tomoko Yoshihara

reform benefits (¥10bn), and sales growth effects (¥20bn). Analyst

tomoko.yoshihara@ubs.com

+81-3-5208 6212

Focus on developments regarding inspection of the Aizu plant

The immediate focus is on inspection results at the Aizu plant, which produces

gastrointestinal endoscopes. Olympus halted shipments after FDA inspections at eight

domestic and international sites as of end-2025. An inspection of the Aizu plant has not

yet been conducted, and the specific timing remains undecided. Olympus explained that

it has factored almost no costs related to the FDA warning into its plans for FY3/27,

saying its response is complete. We believe the removal of the FDA warning for the Aizu

plant will be key for a rise in the company's multiple.

Valuation:

Our PT of ¥1,760 (prev. ¥1,500) is based on a PER of 16.6X (10% discount to avg. PER of

18.5X in FY3/24-26) and FY3/28E diluted EPS (¥106). Since 2023, sector multiples have

fallen due to healthcare cost restraint in various countries, and we have moved our

calculation period to FY3/24-26. Assuming the shipment halt is resolved, we change

from bottom to average PER. We apply a 10% discount as the Aizu plant inspection has