Dillard's Inc "We See a Low Growth Stock; Maintain Sell Rating" (Sell) Serna

Research evidence excerpt

Dillard's Inc "We See a Low Growth Stock; Maintain Sell Rating" (Sell) Serna

Powered by Lab Global18 MayResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Dillard's Inc Equities

AmericasWe See a Low Growth Stock; Maintain Sell

Rating Retailers, Apparel

12-month rating Sell

12m price target US$465.00We believe weak EPS growth will lead to stock underperformance:

DDS' stock had a muted reaction despite delivering Q1 comp sales growth at the high-

end of market expectations (link). Our sense is this was due to concerns around the Price (15 May 2026) US$538.69

sustainability of these positive trends. We anticipate comp sales growth to weaken q/q RIC: DDS.N BBG: DDS US

given tough compares ahead and persistent macro headwinds. While we believe DDS is

adept to drive modest LT sales growth, we see very limited EPS growth potential given Trading data and key metrics

share loss against Off-Price retailers and elevated SG&A (see Fig. 13-19 and more here). 52-wk range US$730.73-391.54

We believe the market is underappreciating the impact on DDS' earnings from these Market cap. US$8.43b

factors. We forecast a 2% 5-yr. EPS CAGR and expect disappointing earnings growth to Shares o/s 15.7m (COM)

pressure DDS' stock towards our $465 PT. We see a 1:2.2 upside/downside skew. Free float 34%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 26.3

Three key takeaways from DDS' Q1 report: Avg. daily value (m) US$15.5

1. Comp sales increase of 3%, but likely to slow. Our sense is Dillard's comp sales Common s/h equity (01/27E) US$1.89b

are benefiting from the rollout of premium and niche brands, which have P/BV (01/27E) 4.4x

differentiated it from Department Stores peers. Despite this improvement, we note Net debt to EBITDA (01/27E) NM

DDS will lap tougher compares in upcoming quarters (+1% in 2Q25 and +3% in

3Q25).