Banca Mediolanum (AO) | Hold | Reassuring message both on short and long term

Research evidence excerpt

Banca Mediolanum (AO) | Hold | Reassuring message both on short and long term

Banca Mediolanum Hold | Target Price: EUR21.50

Company description Management

Banca Mediolanum has the second-largest Italian financial advisor (FA) network Massimo Antonio Doris, CEO

with 6,400 professionals (4,800in Italy and the rest in Spain) and EUR140bn of Igor Garzesi, General Manager

total financial assets (EUR130bn only in Italy). It offers life insurance, asset Angelo Lietti, CFO

management (predominantly mutual funds), and direct banking to clients (1.9m Key shareholders

including its digital platform). The main revenue segments are Banking (21%), Free float 29.80%

Asset Management (27%), Insurance (30%) and Spain (8%). Doris family 40.30%

Fininvest 30.00%

Investment case Valuation methodology

Banca Mediolanum is managing the NII better than direct peers, We use a Dividend Discount Model with a COE of 10% and g of

reaping the benefits of the banking book at floating rates and 3%.

managing the cost of funding by adapting rates offered on Our target price equates to a 14x P/E and 11% P/TFA.

promotions to attract new liquidity. For 2025, the new NII Risks to our rating

guidance is in line with the prior year. Lower interest rates and a fall in financial markets.

2025 is set to be another record year of net new money, with Outflows in wealth management.

AUM net inflows guided at EUR8-8.5bn. Disappointment on dividends.

Market effects (performance fees) remain an important element

of the overall profitability. 2024 was a record year.

Catalysts

Net inflow trend (with two main investment programmes,

Double Chance and Intelligent Investment Strategy) and market

performance of AUM.

Rate offers on current accounts to cope with decline in rates.

Key data charts